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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.76

+1.1%

Dec 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (12479)	11/11/2003 12:05:35 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	of 95536

michael and RtS, you may be interested in the view of BCA Research. U.S. Equities:Timing An Exit Strategy bcaresearch.com Based on previous post-recession rallies, it is still too soon to sell U.S. equity holdings. The chart shows the current cycle relative to the average of the past three post-recession rallies. Contrarians are getting nervous now that the bull market is well discovered and retail investors are coming back into the market. Sentiment indicators are getting high, however, investors should avoid the temptation to bail out too soon: sentiment can hover at a high level for an extended period before the bull market runs out of steam. The key to tripping up the market is when the Fed starts to take away the punch bowl, i.e. when the real (inflation-adjusted) fed funds rate rebounds into positive territory.

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