Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: tejek who wrote (125025)	9/28/2000 11:24:56 PM
From: Eric K.	Read Replies (2) of 1576159

Ted-- Just call him Monty Burns! Anyway, his TA prognostications have been reasonably accurate. Some people (with whom I agree on the current AMD competitive situation) seem to have a problem with conditional probabilities. What is wrong with someone making the statement, "If x occurs, y will likely occur"? If x doesn't occur, there is nothing wrong with the person having made the statement. Moreover, on more than one occasion, when x has occurred, y has occurred. In fact, I think if we were to look at an overall distribution of Mr. Burns' predictions, there have been substantially fewer incorrect statements than trivially correct (x->y, !x) and actually correct (x->y, x) ones. To each his own, I suppose. -Eric

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