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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12535)4/25/2004 10:54:02 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
I read the article. IMO his view about inflation is too benign (as most are). Secondly, he (and others) seem to feel that commodities are "extremely inflated". I feel that's incorrect, in fact some commodities like the metals, have corrected, and are now undervalued, given the real physical shortages. Energy is harder to quantify because of the geopolitical risks. Commodities are volatile because of the big in and out, back in speculative component, but that's different from being "inflated".

I see a China bust too, but from even higher commodity prices (Train Wreck). I think their incremental policy slowdown will have only minor effect, unless they really engage in a severe credit constriction, and that's very unlikely.
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