I think DELL could first test support at an old resistance level, at 59.875. It's tried to cling desperately to the 21-day EMA at 64.5, but without much success. If HP's earnings (to be released after the close today) are at all disappointing, the test of the old resistance level could come soon. In May, when HP issued a warning about earnings, DELL plummeted. If DELL falls through 59.875, the next level down could be 55.5.
Now that the price has fallen through the 9- and 21-day EMA's, the trend will almost certainly be down for a while, but if HP's earnings are good and Mr. Greenspan gives the market a boost, DELL might present a few good shorting opportunities, as it did today. I think it's too soon to begin accumulating on down days. Most indicators, such as Parabolic SAR, have just begun to give sell signals.
I like what you said about the peaks. The fact that the fourth peak failed to reach up to a trendline drawn over the tops of the previous peaks isn't a good sign.
Incidentally, the probability of anything I say coming true is 50/50, cuz, in short, whaddo I know?
Brooke |
