My 2004 energy sector forecast is on track. Here's the post
from January 14th:
Message 19689552
<AFA the duration of this energy bull market, yes I think it will most likely continue thru all or most of this year.
BUT...
As a guy who likes to trade Intermediate Term holding periods - 1 to 3 months in neutral markets for the energy sector, and 3 to 7 months in bull markets - the most important thing for me is to look for a market year to break down into those segments.
1. We need to see where NG storage levels are at the end the heating season.
2. By May/June what kind of fill have we gotten from the Spring Shoulder season.
3. How hot a Summer develops after that.
Each year sees those calendar periods play out a bit differently in the context of strength in the industrial economy, flow of institutional money in and out of competing market sectors, government fiscal policy, monetary policy, actions by OPEC and non-OPEC producers, etc, etc.
A lot of factors go into getting a grip on the fundamental environment before I even look at company specific fundamentals, and then their stock charts. So I use a deductive process of going (i.e. from the general to the specific, big picture first then work my way down thru the sub-sector patterns to the most attractive individual stocks.
Challenging, at least for me. But, also mentally stimulating, and sometimes pretty exciting. Not bad for a day job:o)> |
