RtS, First of all, let me compliment you on the "long term" monthly tables you have referenced and posted on your web site. These are great reference tools, particularly so since they are updated continuously and therefore are always available as up to date long term charts. Your indicators on the charts are great as well.
I looked at all the charts, and your comments in your post, and I can find nothing that I take issue with. As you noted by each stock, some of them look quite strong(MTSN and CMOS certainly fill the bill here), while others look "medium" well off, and others are "folding over". This of course corresponds to the table that I put forth yesterday showing performance of each stock over the period of 9/5/02 to last Friday's close.
Having said that, how do we find the best potential performers going forward - we know what happened in the past few months up until Friday's close, but how can that help us look into the future and predict what will happen by next Friday. Frankly, I don't know. I have been doing these weekly tables long enough to know that last weeks performance does not translate into knowledge of what is going to happen in the coming week with much, if any, confidence. The only thing I can say is that the old saying, "the trend is your friend until shown otherwise" probably has some value, but as you know there is another saying "at some point, the trend will always change". Take your pick of what will happen to MTSN and CMOS in the coming week or few weeks.
Having said that, let me change course a little bit and post a couple of tables I put together when reviewing and responding to your post, trying to find an answer to your question "about best potential performers going forward".
These tables show the amount of percent gain from Oct 1998 to the peak price in 2000, and then the amount of percent gain from Oct 2002 to last Friday's close. The table allows you to compare each stocks price percent gain over the 2 periods. If you believe we are still going up the left side of the bubble like we did from 1998 to 2000, each stock has a long way to go, some more than others, until the new "bubble peak" is reached.
- 2000
- 10/08/98 HIGHEST 10/9/02 11/21/03 98to20 02to03
- CLOSE CLOSE CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT PERCENT
SYMBOL PRICE PRICE PRICE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE
PHTN 2.25 90.38 16.15 37.99 3917 135
LTXX 1.31 50.25 3.33 15.50 3736 365
ASYT 3.13 63.88 3.95 16.25 1941 311
LRCX 2.93 55.56 6.72 29.49 1796 339
MTSN 2.75 49.13 1.65 13.60 1687 724
CMOS 5.00 74.59 6.30 14.25 1392 126
TER* 7.82 110.00 7.22 23.79 1307 230
ASML 4.38 50.05 5.28 17.97 1043 240
BRKS 8.38 89.69 8.95 23.51 970 163
AMAT* 5.59 57.44 10.41 22.96 928 121
CYMI 6.50 65.25 16.74 43.64 904 161
NVLS* 7.30 69.94 20.17 42.54 858 111
HELX 7.88 75.38 7.48 20.11 857 169
SMTL 2.57 23.69 4.29 11.10 822 159
KLAC* 10.94 97.44 26.15 55.05 791 111
COHU 6.75 59.50 9.99 19.47 781 95
KLIC 5.19 43.00 1.95 15.36 729 688
WFR 3.63 23.75 4.70 9.55 554 103
EGLS 7.94 43.44 1.21 3.44 447 184
FSII 4.25 23.13 2.36 5.82 444 147
VECO 21.63 115.50 9.40 28.65 434 205
ATMI 11.50 60.00 12.44 22.08 422 77
PLAB 9.50 45.13 7.90 18.40 375 133
DPMI 17.88 78.81 16.07 22.79 341 42
UTEK 13.56 23.50 6.77 29.08 73 330
TOTALS 180.56 1538.43 217.58 562.39 752 158
SOX-X 189.90 1332.73 214.06 502.66 602 135
COMPQX1419.12 5048.85 1114.11 1893.88 256 70
* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX
- 2000
- 10/08/98 HIGHEST 10/9/02 11/21/03 98to20 02to03
- CLOSE CLOSE CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT PERCENT
SYMBOL PRICE PRICE PRICE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE
MTSN 2.75 49.13 1.65 13.60 1687 724
KLIC 5.19 43.00 1.95 15.36 729 688
LTXX 1.31 50.25 3.33 15.50 3736 365
LRCX 2.93 55.56 6.72 29.49 1796 339
UTEK 13.56 23.50 6.77 29.08 73 330
ASYT 3.13 63.88 3.95 16.25 1941 311
ASML 4.38 50.05 5.28 17.97 1043 240
TER* 7.82 110.00 7.22 23.79 1307 230
VECO 21.63 115.50 9.40 28.65 434 205
EGLS 7.94 43.44 1.21 3.44 447 184
HELX 7.88 75.38 7.48 20.11 857 169
BRKS 8.38 89.69 8.95 23.51 970 163
CYMI 6.50 65.25 16.74 43.64 904 161
SMTL 2.57 23.69 4.29 11.10 822 159
FSII 4.25 23.13 2.36 5.82 444 147
PHTN 2.25 90.38 16.15 37.99 3917 135
PLAB 9.50 45.13 7.90 18.40 375 133
CMOS 5.00 74.59 6.30 14.25 1392 126
AMAT* 5.59 57.44 10.41 22.96 928 121
NVLS* 7.30 69.94 20.17 42.54 858 111
KLAC* 10.94 97.44 26.15 55.05 791 111
WFR 3.63 23.75 4.70 9.55 554 103
COHU 6.75 59.50 9.99 19.47 781 95
ATMI 11.50 60.00 12.44 22.08 422 77
DPMI 17.88 78.81 16.07 22.79 341 42
TOTALS 180.56 1538.43 217.58 562.39 752 158
SOX-X 189.90 1332.73 214.06 502.66 602 135
COMPQX1419.12 5048.85 1114.11 1893.88 256 70
* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX
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