Don, I believe that in order to find the best short term performers we have to look at both short term and longer term charts.
MTSN may have found a bottom on Thursday according to its six month daily chart. Fundamentally it could be way higher than it should be but the chart looks great.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
CMOS is still falling as of Friday and may not stop until its RSI approaches 30 but honestly with both 50 day moving averages and the lower Bollinger Band there to add support I'm not sure that is at all likely.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
However and this is the most important point the SOX may still test its 50 day moving averages at or around 480. Briefing.com is still short term neutral on the market.
They are not alone. Here is an excerpt concening the SOX from InvestmentHouse this weekend:
investmenthouse.com
There is still risk for another quick downside shakeout. Nasdaq and QQQ are still below their up trendlines, and SOX is below the 18 day MVA and at risk of a quick trip to the 50 day MVA. That shakeout early in the week would set the market up for a nice seasonal rally into Thanksgiving.
The market is at an inflection point with all of the large cap indexes trading around the 50 day MVA and the small, mid-caps and SOX just below the 18 day MVA. Every index is in pretty decent shape though Nasdaq is at some risk, trading below its up trendline and struggling to hold the 50 day MVA after undercutting it three times in the week. It has shown many times on this run that betting against it too much is risky.
Thus with the seasonal factors here and an uptrend that is still in place, we are looking for a move higher into Thanksgiving, but first a potential test lower by SOX and the smaller cap indexes to test their 50 day MVA as well. That would provide the shakeout to give the market direction, and now that expiration is history the market will actually be able to make a more sustained move. There was something of a shakeout Friday, however, as SOX and the largest cap indexes undercut their ranges for the week before rebounding.
I don't know how much higher the market will run but I do think it may be possible to make 10 to 20% off of stocks like MTSN or CMOS short term once the put to call ratio closes over 1.0 again.
Thanks for the new tables!
RtS |
