>> craig, I just don't know why you're so confident <<
it would be tedious to go into every single detail about why i am bullish on commodities here but you can always read my commodities thread where i attempt to make a case for increasing demand in the coming years, decreasing supplies, and cheap prices. the combination of those factors i think point toward higher prices.
>> If peace ever settles on Africa, that will open up huge new resources that will make life better for those people, but also in the western countries <<
ahh, if peace settles in africa maybe they will gain enough strength to demand higher prices for their commodities instead of being forced to dump them onto world markets at ridiculously low prices to survive.
>> If the solar and wind technologies catch on, that will replace some of the demand for oil and gas <<
solar and wind technology is promising but not a significant near-term solution. demand for energy is going to be so high in the coming years that it will take alternative energies like solar and wind power just to keep oil prices from exploding. those new technologies will not cause oil to plummet. they might only keep it from exploding. also, i think things like solar energy, fuel-cells, hybrid electric vehicles, etc might increase demand for things like metals and batteries--which of course use metals. furthermore you have to understand that the rest of the world might not operate quite the same way as we do. they might not be wealthy enough to employ higher cost technologies such as solar and wind generation, so they might go the cheap route and use petroleum based products. they also might not have the same kind of environmental concerns we do which require clean burning energy. many developing countries want the cheapest solution, not the most environmentally friendly. of course you can't use wind and solar energy everywhere, you need high winds and good sunlight for them to be effective.
although i think wind is a good idea to help solve energy needs, it's not perfect. for one thing environmentalists freak out about birds flying into the blades. many people think they are unsightly and don't want them in their neighborhood. they also generate noise which drives some people crazy. other people are bothered by the constant moving shadows created by the spinning blades. also, steel tubing is used to construct the towers, although to be honest i'm not sure this would be enough to impact the demand for steel in a significant way. i will have to do some research on that.
>> there are too many unknowns. <<
no there's not. there are many unknowns that effect the stocks you trade but you don't let that stop you.
>> And they will not become better known no matter how hard you think about them. <<
ok, let me put it this way. using your logic, i could say that you can't account for all the unknowns that affect i2's business. interest rates, the economy, the fed, investor psychology and sentiment, upgrades/downgrades, news stories, competition factors, laws, regulations, management actions, etc. yet you still trade it. why? are you telling me that you have all the factors that impact i2's trading mastered? |
