View from the Center and Left Message Board

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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: carranza2 who wrote (12799)	2/20/2006 1:32:46 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) of 541671

Well, five elections in 7 is 71.4% while 7 out of 10 is only 70%, and if we go back to 1960 we get 7 out of 12, only 58%. Since the last two elections were by razor-thin margins, the trend leans more to 50-50 in realistic terms. No Republican can look at the electoral map from 2000 and 2004 and even dream of getting as many electoral votes as Reagan, Bush Sr. or Clinton. If Florida had gone a few hundred votes the other way in 2000 and Ohio less than 70,000 the other way in 2004, Republicans would be looking at three wins 1980-1992 then another long dry streak. There are no firm, comfortable governing support bases in the US electorate on either side. Hence the vital importance of the swing vote in the center.

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