Doug,
>How did you know, then, that Intel had bottomed at 49 3/4, just because it had risen to the mid-50's, a mere ten percent rise ?>
>Using this logic, you would have bought Cisco after it had fallen to 58 and rebounded to above 64 (another ten percent rise).>
No. Intel had been "correcting" for more than 6 months. On the other hand, CSCO has been correcting for about 4 weeks. BIG BIG BIG difference.
The main reason I bought Intel, was because I knew that in the summer, Windows NT and the massive corporate upgrade cycle would begin. I used to post that everywhere--ask "Robin" for confirmation. Some other aspects of me being right by buying Intel were:
1) Luck.
2) I felt it was about time (6 month correction, MSFT was doing well, and WindowsNT/Corporate upgrade cycle).
3) The semis had already sold to a BLOODY panic. Hell, even I was starting to wonder if they'd ever come back (note: the networkers are still not in BLOODY panic mode).
>Let's say it gets down to 50. Will a return to 55 be enough, will it have to rise to 60, for how long will it have to stay there, and what other factors will/would play in your decision ? Also, what if it were to rise from 50 to 65 in one day (quite possible with this stock). Would you jump in, or figure that it had gotten ahead of itself ?>
Doug, there is no real criteria for deciding things like this---for me, it's instinctive. As I've said, there isn't any reason to buy the networkers now. As in, there is no foreseeable news coming to propell them higher--no light at the end of the tunnel (like Windows NT/Corporate upgrade cycle). As a preliminary guess, I'd say that I won't be buying networks for at least a few months, probably more (note: CSCO will begin it's sustained move higher at least a month before the others (maybe a little longer than that).
>One more question: Do you know exactly what is meant when they say the modems are software upgradeable?
If it is a flash ROM upgrade, I think you'll have to go through these steps:
1) Take out your modem, and manually flip a switch or change a jumper setting (so that the ROM will be erasable).
2) Reboot your computer with a DOS startup disk.
3) Run the executable upgrade program.
4) Take out your modem, and manually re-set the switch or jumper setting (so that the ROM is locked or uneraseable).
5) Start your computer and enjoy 56k.
*These steps are how other flash ROMs are upgraded (like BIOS, graphics cards, audio cards, etc.). It is probably true for USRX's modems as well, but I'm not exactly sure. |
