Okay, 207 was never breached and YHOO only reached 203 momentarily after the good news. For the 200 psych barrier to hold, it's important that the number not go over 207 since that would be a psychological breech of 200. Since that time there has been good down volume intraday between 188 and 192, although up-volume has basically predominated. Shorts are clearly jumpy intraday from 177 to 185 and day traders must be having a ball with them.
Few analysts have upped the Net stocks and more have downed them although they have nothing bad to say about the industry and they won't. Momentum and uncertainty have simply stymied valuation. Nobody knows how to argue with this kind of up-trend.
As for the international situation, the conflict between Yeltsin and the Duma is serious enough to cause a constitutional crisis. In Japan, traders have been lauding the Kajiyama candidacy not realizing (or not letting on) that it is not unusual at all for a major figure in the LDP to run against the favorite. In fact it is almost pro forma. The numbers from Japan are bad already and we really haven't even seen more than the tip of the iceberg. The Hashimoto resignation may be positive long term, but it creates uncertainty and the possibility of serious delay at the very least. As if that's not bad enough, China is not done rumbling about its currency valuation.
What can we add to that? How about oil prices that are almost certainly in an up-trend, bad news in semiconductor equipment, flat to slightly up in semiconductors, slightly up to up in PC's, S+P very highly valued, Dow very highly valued and coming up to a long-term resistance level at around 9370 and a tightening bias at the Fed.
Is it impending doom? No. Does it mean the Internet is finished? Of course not. Does it mean Yahoo is a bad company? No. Does it mean that now is when you want to be in stocks trading at many, many times forward *revenues*? You be the judge, but I wouldn't be nervous if I were short at 188 and I'm not nervous owning August and September puts. Why should I be? |
