Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: redfish who started this subject	9/1/2004 8:08:15 PM
From: redfish	of 26091

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 32a Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 01, 2004 ...Frances continuing to lash the Turks and Caicos Islands... now heading for the southeastern Bahamas... a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of the Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida East Coast later this evening. At 8 PM AST...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by satellite and reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 22.3 north... longitude 71.4 west or about 40 miles...65 km...north-northeast of the grand caicos island. This is also about 625 miles...1005 km ...East-southeast of the southeastern Florida coast. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A gradual turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds of near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts...recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. During the past few hours...Grand Turk island reported a sustained wind of 79 mph...125 km/hr...as the eye of Frances passed to the north. Some damage to trees and roofs have been also been reported on the island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft reports remains at 938 mb...27.70 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible in association with Frances. Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected in the Bahamas near the eye of Frances. Repeating the 8 PM AST position...22.3 N... 71.4 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

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