Windsock, <The Bush counties tend to have optical ballots (low error rate) and the Gore counties tend to have punch ballots (high error rate).>
Actually, the punch card counties are pretty evenly distributed between Gore and Bush. Bush has 3x as many punch card counties as Gore and 3x as many optical counties as Gore.
<If the errors are found in proportion to the votes counted, a good assumption, Gore would gain more than Bush in a state-wide recount. That is why the Bush folks do not want a state-wide recount.>
No, I added the county voting type to my spreadsheet. Statewide, Bush has 1,635,385 votes in the undervoting "punchcard counties."
Gore has 1,842,889 votes in the "punchcard counties."
But, by virtue of the fact that Broward county was already recounted, the number of "punchcard votes" still remaining to be recounted for BUSH is 1,458,106 and for Gore is 1,456,371.
Combine that with
1. Bush has 200,000 more optical scan votes than Gore which should yield him a few extra votes AND
2. Bush picked up more than his proportional share of the undercount in Democratic Broward county, even though election board personnel were claiming things like braces behind the GORE chad blocking the stylus pen.
and you have to come to the conclusion that recounting for Gore is hopeless
Petz |
