Ron M, I have been reading all the recent ERICY releases pertaining to projections of future digital phone use.
It is quite apparent that they were intended to influence GSM vs CDMA sentiments for as long as they can. Their choice of words, such as GSM being the "de facto" standard is simply pathetic. If you read their releases carefully, all data keeps referring back to 1996. That is history. QPE is going to sell 3.6 million (300,000 per month) phones this year. This alone is going to more than triple the 1996 CDMA global subscriber base.
Just read another report that France cellular subscription rate gained about 4% (article not clear but it may be month to month compared to last year). Europe, GSM's strong foothold, is simply not going to grow at the same rate as the US, not to mention the heavily populated Asian countries. ERICY had projected that by 2002, there will be 500million+ subscribers with CDMA taking about 15%. At the current pace, the reverse may be true. GSM will remain the little obscure system that the Europeans use while the rest of the world has switched to CDMA. A side note, the way that EU is dickering around, Europe may be insignificant in the global economic picture by the year 2002.
It is unfortunate that MOT all of sudden became the founder of CDMA but the losers in Japan are LU,Nortel,ERICY and not QCOM.
Just realized I am going to be gone in April, when QCOM's quarterly earnings are due. It should be very exciting.
Ramsey |
