Moving faster west. Graphics:
nwhhc.com
1500 UTC 8/30/2004 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST #12
This is an independent product
Note: The initial intensity was the intensity at 1200 UTC. Frances has intensified some since then
The track continues mainly due westerly and a little faster than previously expected. The long term ramifications will be discussed soon. However, for now, WV imagery shows the large ridge dropping to the south north of Frances. This should prevent Frances from gaining any significant latitude for at least the next 24 to 36 hours, which will bring the storm very close to the leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Guidance continues to west to WNW track with some divergence near the end of the period. CMC brings the system through the Keys, while UKMET shows a David track. CMC has had the best track record so that model is going to be given significant weight in this forecast and now the forecast has the hurricane just offshore of South Florida in 5 days, following CMC/UKMET. NOGAPS is unreasonable as it shows Ivan as a spin off of Frances, while GFS keeps flip flopping, giving me little confidence in that model, or the models that use its initial conditions. The increase in initial speed means it is more likely that the storm will move to Florida before the trough can capture it and turn it toward the Carolinas.
Initial intensity at 1200 UTC was 100KT based upon recon data. Since then, satellite imagery indicates that the outflow and inner core have become much better defined; thus, the winds in the 11 A.M. storm update will be higher. France likely will enter a RI phase today and should become a category 4 hurricane again by this evening. Afterwards, fluctuations in intensity are expected due to eye wall replacement cycles. I am not going to indicate weakening at the end of the forecast period as many of the intensity models suggest as these models typically weaken major hurricanes after 3 days. Instead, this forecast follows the trends of AVNI and goes with a net intensification through the period. A UL to the west may cause some shear; however, I do not want to indicate this possibility at this time as the UL may be gone by the time Frances makes it to the Bahamas.
A track south of this forecast may result in interaction with the mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, throwing off both the track and intensity forecast. |
