|
Dave, I kind of like Dbum. It is funny and expresses the more polite
version of Greg's note. Wow, what is weird is I don't even remember
ever writing to Greg. But, as you know, my fast typing skills are the
bane of this forum, and I post to a lot of people I don't
remember. -G- I was last bullish on the chip sector in 1993, though
I first turned bullish in 1991. If the chip sector follows its usual
pattern, it will take 2 to 9 years from top to top. The top was
probably set back when Mark Whittington's interview was printed in
Barron's when he had out-to-lunch #s on all the chip stocks. So, we
are 6-9 months into the decline. We should see the nadir sometime
early next
year for the good companies, and in a year or two for the lesser
lights. So, we should be looking to buy selected chip stocks in
late 1997 to 1998. I am looking for fabs being shut down or turned
into non-chip factories before we see the final curtain on the down
side. That isn't the same as forced vacations or fab closedowns,
because the capacity will come on fast with just cancelling the
vacations or turning on the electricity at the idle fabs. As long as
that potential capacity overhangs the market, we will have a glut.
We actually have to see capacity disappear or, we have to wait with
no new capacity while demand grows into the current production limits.
4. I know you have an ulterior motive here. You just want to see me
say I like PMAT again. -G- Well, I do. At the bottom, I will be
buying Analog Devices, PMAT, Opal, Texas Instruments, Synopsis,
and Parametric Technology. Sorry, I haven't studied the deal yet, so
I can't tout PMAT even louder. -G- Good luck, MB |
