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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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From: LindyBill	8/5/2005 8:22:06 PM
	of 793883

Poll Gate AP Lied, Credibility Died Ankle Biting Pundits has busted the slanted AP-Ipsos Poll that shows the president's approval rating is "down." The poll PDF shows it was too heavily weighted by Democrats. Exit polls last November were 37% Democrat, 37% Republican. The AP Poll was 49% Democrat, 39% Republican. What is worse, the AP Poll does not cross-reference answers and break them down by demographic group so a person could adjust the figures. In fact, previous AP-Ipsos polls also skew Democratic. The April poll was 48% Democratic, 41% Republican. It gave his approve/disapprove numbers at 44/54, a spread of 10 points in a poll weighted 7 points in favor of the Dems. That means the real spread was 3 points. This poll showed a 13 point spread (42/55) but was weighted 10 points in favor of Dems. That means the real spread was 3 points. No change. PDFs from other AP-Ipsos polls are unavailable and press accounts never mention what percentage are Dems, what percentage are GOP. Other polls are less biased and less pessimistic. Indeed, of the five most recent approval polls listed by Real Clear Politics, the AP-Ipsos is the most pessimistic. The Fox Poll showed the president up 3 points (47/44). It was 39% Dem, 37% GOP. Other polls did not break down their samples by party affiliation. What does this mean? Well, if this nation were predominately Democratic -- say 55/45 -- then Bush's popularity would be 42/55. But the nation is not. It is 37/37. And AP cannot tell us what his approval rating is. donsurber.blogspot.com

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