Besides Macugen, competitive threats getting closer, i.e. Lucentis? Dew's suggestion that NVS is hedging Visudyne bet by developing angiogenesis drug for AMD (don't know what timeframe we're talking about there)? Less direct and more distant threats . . . RNAi, Squalamine. Not sure what Atrix is up against; that franchise might be a bit safer.
Well over a year ago, I called for a short of QLTI at these levels. Not one of my best ones. Back in 2000 or so, Ian and I used to be at odds over this one, again with me making the short case. One of my better calls. Now, I do wonder if it's getting oversold, and I've been watching. I think Macugen is overblown, that market acceptance by the end users is going to be less than expected (called for short of EYET after approval; one of my better calls). Lucentis is kind of a me too drug; how will it do with insurers, formularies?
My previous post might hint at things actually in the pipeline at QLT, but I haven't really looked. Perhaps Ian, the chief biofreak follower of this company, can chime in there. You buying here, Ian?
Cheers, Tuck |
