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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (13010)	1/17/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) of 44573

Hey GZ here it is right from the horses mouth...as of the 15 of Jan, before the bell...so just add up the boxes to 9340... and you're right..hey when you trade the S&P's you have to KISS, sure you rely on the forks, but you have confidence in those tools...well so do I with P&F.....hope this chart shows up ok...probably won't though...<g>..From the Analyst 01/15/99 Choose an Archived Report Chicken Little's Revenge Well, it looks like Chicken Little finally got his revenge. We surmise that much of the volatility of the last two days was option expiration related. Of course Brazil weighed in with it's contribution to volatility but this type of action in expiration week is normal. Most of the media will attribute it all to Brazil. We don't think all the volatility is attributable to Brazil. Today is likely to be wild too. The Bullish Advisors are at an all time high since 1992 and it's been a strong run since the bottom where the NYSE Bullish Percent recorded a 16% reading. Be that as it may, a picture is worth a thousand words as they say. The chart below is a 100 point box chart of the Dow Jones and is considered long term. You will notice that the pullback does not cause any damage to this long term chart. When you look at the Bell Curve distribution on the right side of the chart you will note that the decline has pulled the chart right back to the center of the distribution, i.e. Norm al. Don't jump out of your shirt yet. Let's get through today's expiration and then see how things look. We have written many times that the week following expiration in many cases sees the market do the exact opposite as it did in the week of expiration. Relax, take a deep breath and stay focused. Dow Jones (DJIA) 100 Point Per Box Chart 10000 -------+-----------------------------------------------+----------------- 9900 \| \| Top 9800 \| \| 9700 \| \| 9600 \| X 9500---------+-----------------------------------------------X-O--------------- 9400 \| 1 O 9300 \| X X X O 9200 \| X 5 X O X O X O 9100 \| X O X O 6 7 O X O X O Med 9000---------\|---4-O-X-O-X-O-X-O-------------------------X-C-X----------------- 8900 \| X O O X O X O X O X 8800 \| X O O X 8 X O X 8700 \| X O X O X X B O \| 8600 \| 3 O O X O X O X \| 8500---------\|---X-------------O-X-O-X-O-----------------X---\|----------------- 8400 \| X O O O X \| 8300 \| X O X \| Bot 8200 \| X O X \| 8100 X \| 2 O X X X \| 8000-----X-O-1---X---------------------O-----X---X-O-X-O-X---\|----------------- 7900 C O X O X O X X O X O X O X \| 7800 X O X O X O X O X O X O A X \| 7700 X O X O X O X O X O X O X \| 7600 O X O \| O X O X O X O O X \| 7500---O-X---\|-O-----------------------9---O-----------O-----\|----------------- 7400 O \| \| 7300 \| \| 7200 \| \| 7100 \| \| 7000---------\|-----------------------------------------------\|----------------- 9\|9 9\|9 7-8 8-9 While we make every effort to be free of errors in the data on our site, it is derived from data from other sources. We believe these sources to be reliable but we cannot guarantee their accuracy. Copyright © 1995-1999 Dorsey, Wright & Associates, Inc.

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