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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: gregor_us who wrote (13013)5/1/2004 11:27:43 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
i think there were other reflation plays that more than doubled--e.g., i had a four-bagger in FCX from Nov 02 to 03. but it seems the concentration was in tech names as opposed to commodities. reflation exuberance was also evident in a great year for junk, as well as near-zombies (e.g., AMR) some of which were ten-baggers.

interesting comment from Mauldin today:

Remember, ten-year rates are 4.5%. Could the "natural" yield curve sometime later this year be negative, suggesting a recession 12 months later? Would we be seeing a "false" positive curve because of the Fed holding rates down and thus assume we are not in danger of a recession within the next 12 months? I could make good cases for both sides of that argument, but the answer is that we would be in completely new territory with little historical precedent.
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