The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: gregor_us who wrote (13029)	5/1/2004 12:23:05 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	of 110194

I think the dollar strengthens eventually on such chaos because the money supply takes back all of its debt expansion via liquidation and debt cancellation. the only problem is, if you look at US govt's debt, surely they could default on their "official" debt of $7 trillion if they felt like it, but i don't think they can default on their unofficial (but no less real) $51 trillion NPV in obligations toward future retirees. basically if they tried to do this i think there'd be a "Grey Revolution". so instead, the more palatable path will be to try to reduce the value of the debt through inflation. though i still think oil may do better than gold because it is basically economic oxygen. also, it seems we will have a huge drawdown in production, whether it is over a period of 10 years or 30. and it is hard to imagine that this drawdown will occur in a stable price environment.

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