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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers
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To: Gib Bogle who wrote (13043)6/9/2006 10:24:38 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) of 78419
 
<The main weakness of decision analysis in real decision contexts is that you need to have some idea of the probabilities involved, and they are seldom available. For example, I've never considered trying to apply any of these methods to investment decisions, where, as you say, the main factors are emotional/psychological issues, particularly mob psychology.>

Yes, probabilities are linear... life in non-linear.

We've evolved to intuit the nature, not play dice. -ggg-

DAK
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