Pete:
Make notes with respect to this crazy period, because your grandchildren will want to know how the heck the crash of the century occurred. I've only been in this game for thirteen years, but aside from the normal "I've never seen anything like this", I would not have been able to conjure up anything like this, even if I were writing up a comedy script for Monty Python.
The Japanese situation is going from ugly to frightening. The average Joe over there, is terrified that his local bank won't be there in the morning, (and he may be right), so he's pulling out his wad of Yen. To this point in time, the primary destination for this relocating money has been the Postal Savings system, but a decent enough chunk of it is being deposited in American bank branches. They've had record safe (the hard rectangular type as opposed to....) sales, so some of that dough is just staying at home. They pulled multi-billions in December, and it is accelerating. Meantime, the Japanese banks are pulling in the small and intermediate business loans, to try to get onside for April 1 ('big bang" - "deregulation"). It's a vicious circle that had best be broken very soon, or we'll be reading about multi-bank failures over there. Pulled business loans are destroying the very fabric of the country (75% of GDP comes from this level). My bet is that they decide to postpone, but I'm staying primarily on the sidelines until after April 1, or until the smoke clears. I think our markets are already benefiting from some of that Japanese Yen having been enticed into the tulip patch. As soon as it passes the U.S. banks' front door, they'll find a way to hustle it into the market. As has always been the case, the market won't crash until it has vacuumed up ALL the money. Most investors haven't a clue as to just how important those Japanese banks are to OUR continued well-being on this side of the pond, but they would learn very quickly if they fall. Can't happen? I pray that it doesn't, but the harsh reality is that it can. If Japanese savers don't quickly regain confidence in their banks, the odds favour "bank runs" which never end well. Where's "don't-worry-be-happy" Abbey Joseph-Cohen (sp) when we need her? Can she speak Japanese?
Best, Earlie |
