I suggest you ask me if I read the exchange before you assume I'm sticking my head in the sand. Not only did I read it when it was posted originally on the AVNX thread, but I read it again when you came over here making your claims. I came to the conclusion that you misunderstood what he wrote in the first place and now you want to compound your error by coming here making these over-blown claims. Not only that, now you are speculating that somehow it was an attempt to massage a position. Tempest in a teapot.
I did not see the word buy or recommend in anything he said about AVNX. I'll quote the part you misunderstood and perhaps if you can come down off your high horse a little you'll see your mistake.
You said:
4) $4.3 billion market cap on a $200 million annual run rate on revenues with 47% gross margins ( LOW margins )Long term could be a huge winner BUT given the above, is it possible to buy AVNX a little cheaper, ie 45-55 range? My best guess is that AVNX returns to a trading range of 45 - 75 ( extreme volatility due to low float ) until AVNX provides a more bullish outlook/numbers.
To which he replied:
By the time the company achieved the bullish outlook you imply it would be selling at a price much higher. After the last 5 years you shouldn't be surprised to see large caps on little revenue. The critical point is visibility of technology. It's almost a sure thing that mega lambdas will be the transmission technique of the future. Put that on a mesh topology AON with mostly passive components and no switches or at least bus juncture light speed switches (holograms?) and you have one-to-many-to-one which is the holy grail of communication.
What in there is not true? How is this a recommendation to buy AVNX at the current price or any price for that matter? He was implying that if you wait for the fundamentals of a company to be clearly bullish to anyone, the price moves away from you. That large multiples have been a fairly regular occurrence in the market in the last five years. He was stating the obvious. You are going to accuse someone of hyping for stating the obvious? How can you conclude he has any position and why should he tell you if he does, does it change his statements in some way? Why not debate the statements based on what was said?
You made a good guess as to where the price would go short term, you should be happy about that, I assume you made lots of money on the call, right? Predictions about short term price are clearly a guess. Only over time the price approaches the rational expectations for the company, in the meantime it is almost always wrong whether up or down. When you are making decisions to buy a company you have to take into account your investment horizon. It's a crap shoot in the short term, everyone should know that and if they don't they most certainly don't belong in the market.
One word of caution, never assume you know if someone holds a position in a stock long or short by what they write in an investment stock thread. It ain't that easy, even if they tell you outright. |
