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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 43.62

+9.0%

11:41 AM EST

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (130939)	3/27/2001 7:24:34 AM
From: Road Walker	of 186894

Joe, re: We may have had an exception to that from Q4 1999 to Q2 2000, when there actually was a shortage of processors, and both companies did exceptionally well. I don't think we will see shortage of processors again for a long time. It's interesting how sentiment changes in a cyclical business. One year ago everybody was worried because Intel and AMD couldn't meet demand, which was accelerating to a late spring/early summer peak of ~50% YOY growth. Now the mantra is we will not see shortages for a "long time", if ever. At the peak, folks were saying semiconductors were no longer a cyclical product, because they were used in so many different devices/products. Now wrt to PC processors they are saying that there are so many new competitive devices that the market will never come back. The truth lies somewhere in between. And, on balance, both Intel and AMD will do very well when the cycle is strong and do very poorly when the cycle is weak. The competitive position is secondary to the market conditions. John

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