Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Mitt Romney earns 48% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Mitt Romney earns 48% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another 4% are undecided.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.
As the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to hear the federal government’s challenge to Arizona’s immigration law, 59% of voters believe police officers should check the immigration status of those they stop for traffic violations. However, as Scott Rasmussen notes in a radio commentary, voter anger is not directed at the immigrants. It is directed at the federal government, employers and others who enable illegal immigration.
Most Americans believe the price of gas could reach $5 a gallon in the next few months. Forty-four percent (44%) believe government regulations are primarily to blame, while 32% point to speculators.
Three-out-of-four Americans (75%) would prefer the U.S. Postal Service cut mail delivery to five days a week rather than receive government subsidies to cover ongoing losses.
Scott Rasmussen’s Tuesday morning radio update for the WOR Radio Network notes that voters are skeptical that government actions will lead to more fairness in society. Fifty percent (50%) think more government would lead to less fairness. An early update commented on how just 27% think government investments made America great. A much larger number give credit to the free enterprise system.
If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers. The Wall Street Journal has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster” and The Washington Post says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.
Republicans continue to hold a modest edge on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Sixty percent (60%) believe that American society is generally fair and decent. Only 26% believe it is unfair and discriminatory.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe that pay and bonuses for CEOs is too high, but only 17% think the government should regulate their compensation. There is, however, a notable exception. Forty-six percent (46%) support regulation of CEO salaries at companies that were bailed out, even if the company has repaid the bailout money.
To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the president's numbers.
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Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18 ( see trends).
During mid-term elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
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Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology ( see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our " unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large ( see methodology). It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.
Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 36.1% Republicans, 32.8% Democrats, and 31.1% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans. |
