Andy - Re: "When a timetable says a certain fab is ramping in Q1, what exactly does that mean? "
It could simply mean that the first production wafers on the new device and/or process are STARTED in that quarter - Q1 , in this case.
Bear in mind, production on a new process is generally done very deliberately - and the amount of equipment available for that process may only be enough to process a small number of wafers.
For example, Intel needs only one Stepper/Scanner capable of producing 300 mm wafers with 0.13 micron features (actually smaller, in some cases) - yet this one machine could only support a small number of wafers if that machine has to be used for many layers - even at lower resolutions (eg., trench/metal layers.
Hence, the level of production (ramp) may only be a trickle for many months as the process is wrung out in a production environment.
Throughput - wafer starts to wafer outs - will necessarily be longer than normal, where "normal" may be 6 to 9 weeks. Thus, wafers may take 10 or 12 weeks to process for the new 300 mm process - which is an ENTIRE QUARTER itself.
If so, those wafers don't make it to assembly until the NEXT quarter - and once assembled, these finished devices will most likely be part of a reliability monitored process - assuming that the process/device has already been qualified prior to production ramping.
Thus, the monitors may require 100% burn-in, adding yet another delay of a week or more.
When product does ship to customers, it may be closer to TWO QUARTERS from the initial product ramp.
Re: ". The last schedule I saw had this fab ramping in Q1 of '02. But the press release says chips will be in the marketplace "at the beginning of next year." Does this sound like they have pulled in the timetable by a quarter?"
That's what it implies - but technically, June 30, 2002 is still the BEGINNING of next year - so Intel has a lot of wiggle room.
Paul |
