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Technology Stocks : USRX

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To: ralph keating who wrote (13172)2/25/1997 11:31:00 AM
From: David Lawrence   of 18024
 
Ralph,

Here is an exchange that took place on my ISP's newsgroup a couple of months ago. Of course, a lot has happened since then:

=====================================================================
Subject: Has Insync taken a position with regard to 56k?
Date: Mon, 06 Jan 1997 23:02:30 GMT
From: David Lawrence

Or for that matter, 33.6k?

US Robotics is on the verge of deploying their version of 56k (called
x2). Is Insync totally Ascend Max based, and if so, is anything going
to be done to accomodate x2 capable customers?
=====================================================================
Subject: Re: Has Insync taken a position with regard to 56k?
Date: Tue, 07 Jan 1997 01:56:01 GMT
From: Bill

David, there currently are TWO major factions about to draw the battle
lines between them regards the new "56k" technology, USRobotics and
Rockwell. The "battle" will be to see which of the two protocols win
out with the ITU-T (an international standards-setting agency). While
the wars are fought the two manufacturer's competing protocols will
not be able to interoperate with one another. Once the "standard" is
decided upon then the remaining 'non-compliant' manufacturer will of
course bring "their" mutation of the protocol into compliance with the
"standard".

Insync uses ASCEND modems which are based on the ROCKWELL chipset,
therefore it is logical to assume that Ascend's "56k" implementation
will follow the Rockwell adaptation of the technology and thus be
non-compliant with USRobotics' adaptation, at least until the STANDARD
is decided upon.

LUCENT Technologies (formerly known as AT&T/Bell Labs) has thrown in
with the ROCKWELL camp in this developmental stage, thus it is felt that
early modems with either an AT&T or Rockwell chipset will interoperate
with each other, but not with USRobotics.

However, as of this very moment, NO ONE, neither Rockwell, Lucent or
USRobotics has a shipping product. USRobotics is in a developmental
stage called "Controlled-Introduction" but that can best be
characterized as Alpha trials and very early beta. USR's field beta
team does NOT YET have beta code to play with.

The picture I'm trying to draw for you David is that =ANY= "shipping"
model of a 56k product, from =ANY= manufacturer, currently DOES NOT
EXIST and is likely at least a good month or more from even being close to becoming available.

RUMORS ARE that in all likelihood USR will begin shipping their version
of 56K before their competitors, but that won't help Insync customers as
Insync does not use USR modems.
=====================================================================
Newsgroups: insync.general
Subject: Re: Has Insync taken a position with regard to 56k?
Date: Tue, 07 Jan 97 03:25:35 GMT
From: Greg

I can't speak for Insync's on these items, but AFAIK, yes, all of Insync's
present dial-in servers are Ascend Max units. Ascend has released interim
versions of their code which incorporate 33.6KBps support, but there are other
problems associated with that code that make it less than ideal for
deployment. Ascend has announced their plans to support Rockwell's competing
56K analog modem technology in their Max product line, but has not as of yet
released code which incorporates this feature.
=====================================================================
Newsgroups: insync.general
Subject: Re: Has Insync taken a position with regard to 56k?
Date: Tue, 07 Jan 1997 16:38:08 GMT
From: David Lawrence

Thanks, Bill and Greg. I'm well versed on the 56k deployment issues,
but was uncertain of Insync's hardware benefits and/or constraints.

ISP adoption of 56k technology is pretty much along party lines. Those
with Rockwell based modem cards are stuck with the ROK/LU (a.k.a. the
"Consortium") solution, and the same goes for users of USRobotics
Total Control hubs.

There are several differences in the two situations. For example,
Ascend, Shiva, etc., do not control their analog technology, and are
at the mercy of the Consortium to provide it. USR controls their
technology in conjunction with TI. All USR remote access concentrators
and Courier class modems utilize DSP/Flash memory architecture, and
are thus upgradeable to 56k via software, both now and when an ITU
standard is developed. USR has already announced free software
upgrades for most of their hubs and Courier modems, and inexpensive
eprom replacements for the Sportster modems.

There is another rumor with regard to Rockwell's deployment. It seems
that the hybrid Rockwell modem is a 68 pin chipset, and is not
upgradeable to 56k. Their "early" deployment will also be a hybrid 68
pin chipset which will not be upgradeable to a standard. It is
supposed be followed later in the year with their "final" solution,
which is an 84 pin DSP/Flash architecture chipset. You had better have
a big hammer handy when it comes time to place that 84 pin chipset
into a 68 pin socket. I will repeat that this is a popular rumor, and
has not been denied or confirmed by the Consortium.

Rockwell and their "partners" have remained relatively silent on these
issues, instead chosing to announce their "70% of existing modems", a
meaningless piece of trivia since none are not software upgradeable to
any version of 56k, and many older models are not hardware upgradeable
either. I was quite humored when Ascend's Mory Ejabat boldly
pronounced that Ascend would be first to market with 56k, and even the
Rockwell spokesperson said they felt that to be "somewhat agresssive."
It turns out that their new hubs will be shipping with empty sockets
to accept 56k chipsets when they become available from Rockwell.

So it seems that not only will USR have a significant lead in
time-to-market, but their will enjoy huge leverage with their
installed base of client and server modems, whereas Rockwell gets only
minmal leverage with their installed base of client modems since their
owners are facing one or two hardware upgrade cycles, with unknown
availability time or cost.

It certainly places Ascend based ISPs at a competitive disadvantage
with regard to 56k deployment versus their competitors that are USR
based shops. The ISPs adopting USR x2 technology this month represent
over 16 million dial up subscribers. Rockwell and their partners may
be left standing at the gate if they don't deploy a cost effective
solution, and soon.

Forgive me if my bias towards USR shows. I am also biased towards
Insync. I think they are a great ISP, and I would hate to be in a
position of having to change because Ascend chose the "cheap" analog
hardware for their hubs.

Now, only time will tell.
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