[unsolicited thoughts and stream of consciousness ramblings]
There are probably a lot of folks out there like me who are:
1) long, with a significant portion of my portfolio tied up in AMTX;
2) strong believers in the technology and its future;
3) disappointed in the lack of partnership announcements, but understanding that such announcements will most likely not be forthcoming until chipset availability in quantity can be guaranteed, and product shipping schedules formulated;
4) aware that if you're long with story stocks like this you just have to hang on for dear life and stay invested, because the greatest sin is to get out/get in trying to time the "pop", and in all likelyhood miss it.
On the other hand:
1) Even with significant announcements by potential licensees and partners, AMTX consistently fails to take effective action using PR. When they do, the PR is impotent. Any temporary rise in the stock immediately deteriorates within a week. The arrogance of the company with respect to shareholder value and the impact/value of PR is incredible and infuriating.
2) Given the lack of strength of the stock, even with positive PR, the sector fundamentals are not there at this moment to support any kind of sustained rise in price beyond the $10 level. New buyers know it can be had for under $10, and will wait for it's price. Unless some consensus develops among the analyst community that the networking stocks are severely oversold and represent a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity, AMTX will lag upward trends in the larger-cap networking stocks, but will decline with them. No strength. No marketmakers wishing to support the stock.
My conclusion:
If you're long -
1) There's probably equal upside downside risk at this price, and probably 25% either way on price. (downside = 7.5, upside = 11.5).
2) You may be wise to pick an exit point and try to get out in the next week or so, especially if the networking stocks rebound. Plan to get back in later, when MOT and TI get closer to mass chip production. Don't let your money sit idle for the next few months.
3) Monitor news sites daily for hints on MOT/TI chip production progress, or the AMTX partnership agreements.
4) Get back in, regardless of the price, by the end of June.
If you're short-
1) This may be a good time to cover.
2) Wait for a temporary rise, then short some more, knowing your risk increases dramatically toward the middle/end of summer.
3) Cover whenever you can below $9.
If you're not in at all, but wish to be -
1) Pick an entry price in the low 9's and wait.
Sorry to be so long-winded.
Make your own decisions, the above reflects only my own current thinking, and it may change in the next 30 minutes. |
