CRUDE OIL PRICING & RELATED / PART 3 - International In Scope
11/03 19:39 FOCUS- U.S. crude demand rises, but trails supply
REUTER POLL FORECAST* ACTUAL FOR
FOR WEEK ENDED 10/30/98 WEEK ENDED 10/30/98-
------------------------------------------------------------
CRUDE............ UP 4.000 MLN 343.717 UP 7.987 MLN
DISTILLATE....... UP 1.100 MLN 146.815 DN 0.946 MLN
GASOLINE......... DN 1.200 MLN 200.464 UP 3.206 MLN
UTILIZATION...... UP 1.00 (PCT PT) 93.6 PCT UP 5.1 PCT PT
*NB - The forecast is derived by polling at least six
market analysts/traders, omitting the high and low forecast and
averaging.
NEW YORK, Nov 3 - U.S. crude oil stocks jumped
sharply last week even as the refining sector showed a stronger
thirst for oil, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said in
a report which sent futures prices tumbling in after-hours
trade Tuesday.
In its weekly report, the API said nationwide crude stocks
jumped by almost 8.0 million barrels, or twice the amount
forecast by oil analysts and traders earlier Tuesday. It was
the fourth consecutive week in which crude stocks climbed, and
at 343.7 million barrels they now stand more than 31 million
barrels above year ago levels.
The rise came even as refineries cranked up crude runs
after several weeks of heavy plant maintenance, which at one
point last month helped cut throughputs to their lowest level
since early 1997.
Crude throughputs have climbed slowly but steadily since
then, rising another 744,000 barrels a day (bpd) last week to
14.5 million bpd.
But U.S. traders appeared to take little comfort from hints
of a revival in the refining sector. Instead, they focused on
the colossal rise in crude stocks, selling front-month futures
down 16 cents to $14.04 a barrel in aftermarket trading on the
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
The report didn't paint a much brighter picture for oil
products. Stocks of distillates, mainly heating oil and diesel,
slipped by around 950,000 barrels to 114.7 million barrels, but
are still well above year ago levels heading into the winter
months.
Gasoline stocks have also moved back above year ago levels
after rising by 3.2 million barrels last week, a move in sharp
contrast to expectations of a draw of over a million barrels.
The data helped send December gasoline futures 0.41 cents
per gallon lower to 43.30 cents on the NYMEX Tuesday evening.
NYMEX Hub Natural Gas Ends With Cold Weather Gains
NEW YORK, Nov 3 - NYMEX Hub natural gas futures ended up across the
board Tuesday in a moderate session, with colder weather over much of
the nation this week and firmer physical prices driving the complex
higher, industry sources said.
December climbed 4.9 cents to close at $2.436 per million British
thermal units after trading today between $2.35 and $2.46. January
settled 4.3 cents higher at $2.595. Other deferreds ended up by 0.2 to
4.3 cents.
''There were a lot of people short out there who got caught by the
first cold snap, but we still have a lot of gas in storage, and next
week it's supposed to be warmer than this week,'' said one Midwest
trader.
While traders agreed improved technicals and some Midwest and
Northeast cold this week helped lead paper and physical markets
higher, few expected much more upside, with cash still lagging futures
and the year-on-year inventory surplus likely to gain again after
Wednesday's weekly storage report.
''Unless it stays cold, I think we'll see Dec back in the low-$2.00
area. We're not making any headway on the storage surplus, and it's
going to grow again tomorrow,'' a Texas trader said.
Injection estimates for Wednesday's weekly AGA storage report range
from 20 bcf to 50 bcf. For the same week last year, stocks fell five
bcf.
WSC expects Northeast and Mid-Atlantic temperatures to remain two to
eight degrees F below normal through Saturday. Normal to slightly
above normal readings in the Southeast and Florida Tuesday and
Wednesday will dip to one to six degrees below normal later in the
week.
In the Midwest, much below normal readings Tuesday and Wednesday will
moderate to near normal by Saturday. Texas will range from two to
eight degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday to about seasonal
levels by the weekend, while the Southwest will stay mostly below
normal for the period.
The six- to 10-day forecast released Tuesday calls for mostly below
normal temperatures for the northern half of the nation and
California. Normal to above normal readings are expected for the lower
Midwest, Texas and the Southeast including Florida.
Chart traders now pegged December resistance at today's high of $2.46,
then in the $2.52 area and at last week's high of $2.63. Support was
seen first at yesterday's $2.24 low and then at the September 2 low of
$2.14.
In the cash Tuesday, Henry Hub swing quotes on average jumped 25 cents
to the $2.08-2.10 area. Midcon pipes scored similar gains to the
low-$2s. In the West, El Paso Permian was pegged in the mid-to-high
$1.90s, also up about 25 cents.
Swing gas at the Chicago city gate rallied more than 30 cents to the
high-$2.20s, while New York was talked more than 15 cents higher in
the mid-to-high $2.40s.
The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip gained 2.4 cents to $2.322. NYMEX
said an estimated 55,691 Hub contracts traded today, up from Monday's
revised tally of 50,329.
US Spot Natural Gas Prices Up More Than 20 Cents On Cold
NEW YORK, Nov 3 - U.S. spot natural gas prices tacked on at least 20
cents Tuesday as a rising heating demand sparked new buying, industry
sources said.
''It's all weather-related,'' one Midwest source said.
Gas prices at Henry Hub were quoted widely at $2.05-2.15 per mmBtu,
with most business reported done at $2.08-2.10, indicating a gain of
about 26 cents from Monday.
In the Midcontinent, swing prices were talked mostly in the low-$2
area, with Northern at Demarcation pegged near $2.05.
At the Chicago city-gate, prices were quoted equally firmer at
$2.26-2.30.
In west Texas, El Paso Permian gas traded at $1.95-2.04, while the San
Juan market hovered in the low-$1.90s, sources said.
In the East, Appalachian deals were reported done in the mid-$2.30s to
mid-$2.40s on Columbia Gas, while New York city-gate prices climbed
into the $2.40s, sources said.
Forecasts called for mostly below-normal temperatures across the U.S.
through week's end, with lows expected to reach the 30s in the Midwest
and Northeast.
Next week's forecast shows a continuation of cooler-than-normal
weather in the upper Northeast, the western half of the U.S. and
stretching into Texas, according to Weather Services Corp.
Injection estimates for Wednesday's American Gas Association storage
report ranged from 20 bcf to 50 bcf, versus a five bcf draw a year
ago.
Canadian Natural Gas Softens In Alberta, Firms At Exports
NEW YORK, Nov 3 - Canadian spot natural gas prices were lower in
Alberta but firmer at the export points as colder weather in the U.S.
lured Canadian supplies across the border, industry sources said
Tuesday.
Linepack on NOVA's system jumped to 13.255 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) Monday evening, surpassing the target linepack of 12.8 bcfd.
As a result, NOVA changed its tolerance level to -18/+2 as of 1000 MST
Tuesday to encourage drafting of gas off the system.
Spot gas prices at Alberta's AECO storage hub were quoted at
C$2.41-2.50 per gigajoule (GJ), indicating a loss of about nine cents
from Monday's level.
In the export markets, however, prices rose eight cents at
Sumas/Huntingdon to about US$1.74-1.78 per mmBtu as colder weather
sent U.S. buyers back to the market.
In the East, Niagara prices were quoted at US$2.30-2.31 per mmBtu,
boosted by about 23 cents by cold weather and a rise in December
futures to a high of $2.46, traders said.
Canadian Spot Natural Gas Domestic Prices - November 3rd
DOMESTIC (NOV SWING) $CDN/GJ $US/MMBTU
ALBERTA PLANT-GATE 2.31/2.36 1.63/1.67
ALBERTA BORDER - EMPRESS 2.53/2.58 1.79/1.82
STATION 2, B.C. 2.35/2.40 1.65/1.70
SASK. PLANT-GATE 2.31/2.36 1.63/1.67
TORONTO CITY-GATE 3.19/3.26 2.25/2.30
1-YR PCKGS - EMPRESS 2.72/2.77 N 1.92/1.95 N
AECO 2.43/2.48 1.71/1.75
N=notional. One yr package beginning November 1.
Canada/U.S. dollar conversion based on Bank of Canada noon rate.
One year packages converted to U.S. dollars at a 12-month forward
rate.
Tuesday November 3, 7:23 pm Eastern Time
Canadian Spot Natural Gas Export Prices - November 3rd
EXPORT (NOV SWING) $CDN/GJ $US/MMBTU
HUNTINGDON B.C. 2.45/2.52 1.73/1.78
KINGSGATE B.C. (TO PNW) 2.45/2.52 1.73/1.78
MONCHY SASK 2.31/2.38 N 1.63/1.68 N
EMERSON MAN 2.65/2.72 1.87/1.92
NIAGARA ONT 3.23/3.30 2.28/2.33
Canada/U.S. dollar conversion based on Bank of Canada rate. |
