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From: allevett	10/10/2005 7:11:39 PM
	of 37387

From the ASPO October Newsletter by: ridinycurve 10/10/05 07:00 pm Msg: 129161 of 129162 Another condemnation of the IEA’s hokey numbers….. 620. The IEA World Energy Outlook The International Energy Agency is about to publish the 2005 World Energy Outlook, a series of publications, well known for their meaningless scenarios and misleading data, which have provided valuable curtains to help the member OECD governments to hide from reality. Advance presentations have been made as reported by Le Monde and other journals. Mr Birol, its Chief Economist, is reported to state that Non-OPEC conventional production will reach a plateau after 2010, with subsequent production being dependent on technology and investment. He is by all means an Economist. Mr. Mandil, the Director, who probably himself understands the situation perfectly well, is naturally obliged to observe the political dictates of his member countries. He is quoted as saying that 1.5 Tboe of conventional oil and gas have been produced to date and that reserves stand at 2.2 Tboe. (This estimate corresponds with the official numbers as published for example by BP, which bear little relation to the actual position). Speaking in terms of oil equivalent always helps to confuse the issue, because the depletion profiles are so different, but it might hint of the approach to the midpoint of depletion that normally equates with Peak. The IEA has also published a book entitled Resources to Reserves (ISBN 2-64-10947-1), which explains how rising future demand can be met by new technology and exploration in remote and unknown places, based in part on the flawed study of the USGS. It includes a graph making the classic mistake of attributing the growth of North Sea production to technological advances when in reality most was due to conservative initial reporting. The organisation faces the increasing challenge of holding on to a vestige of credibility as the reality of the actual situation manifests itself in terms of soaring prices and the loss of spare capacity from the wellhead to the refinery. Katrina and her sister Rita can obscure the issue for only so long before a different sort of storm breaks. hxxp://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter58_200510.pdf

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