Now, if you were AOL, wouldn't you be trying to purchase modems
that were upgradable at a minimal cost?
The point you raise is the most intriguing aspect of this X2 vs Rockwell issue and how it applies to AOL. I wish my thoughts on this were as cut and dried as they are regarding user/modem ratios.
But I'll give it a stab.
Much of my feelings about X2 are emotional; I have a tendency to deeply dislike attempts by any one company to corner any one market (hence my frequent derision of Windoze). The unemotional part of my feelings on the matter, however, are that it is dangerously risky for USRX to attempt to do so.
They just might pull it off, though, for the following reasons:
1. Awesome market entrenchment.
2. Standard is DSP-based, so it *can* be changed via software.
3. All USRX modems currently being shipped (even if they're the lowly 33.6k modems AOL will surely buy) are software upgradable.
Surprisingly enough, if I were AOL, I'd buy the USRX modems. I see it as having a 75% chance of proving to be the right move, while buying the Rockwell/Lucent compatibles has only a 50% chance, IMO.
The reasons:
1. They might pull it off.
2. They *might* be software upgradeable to whatever standard (or hybrid) gets ratified. I don't know for sure that they are or aren't.
3. They're already using USRX modems.
4. Heavy demand for 56k speeds won't hit until well after AOL either dies or gets a new lease on life.
I think that buying the USRX modems, while not guaranteed the *correct* move, would be the most prudent.
To address your statement that "56kbps modems will be the norm", we just don't know yet *which* 56kbps modems will be the norm. My concern is that betting heavily that the X2 version will be the norm might be analogous to someone having bet heavily several years ago that USRX's HST "standard" would be the only way anyone ever did 14.4k, only to have to scrap every one of them when v.32bis was ratified.
Keep in mind that the upgrade to the "Dual Standard" was far from cheap or easy. The X2 might change (or support multiple) standards easily and for free, but I have yet to see USRX's statement to that effect. If I see that, there is suddenly very little reason to buy anything *but* USRX modems. |
