JDX.TO - We done good buying this @ .80 and lower methinks. Just starting to move. Check this out from the Bullboards:
Flying Dutchman (ID#: 4831) TA (technical analysis) ... 11/4/99 1:24:11 AM 496196
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Given that charting is certainly an art as much as it is a science, I figured that I should share my own analysis for a change instead of quietly kicking back and enjoying Keith's relentless and selfless work. Thank you Keith!
By way of background, we added 100,000 shares of Jordex to the model portfolio of Growth Stocks Weekly (GSW) between Dec 1998 and Aug 1999. The average cost is $0.707 per share. GSW is in it's 5th year as a weekly. It started as a means to keep my clients, friends and family informed, and cut back on the # of incoming telephone calls, when I was a broker (11+ yrs).
For charting I use Metastock Pro. I look at both the daily and weekly charts. I use Japanese Candlesticks for all the data points, rather than the traditional bar charts.
My favorite indicators include the 13, 40 and 80 period moving averages (MA's - daily and weekly periods), Fibonacci Retracement lines and angles, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicator, On-balance-volume (OBV), Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and occasionally the Gann angles.
Usually I plot on a semi-log scale, especially useful given the old extreme highs on so many junior deals, versus where they now trade. I also plot long & medium term trend lines and the usual technically important formations such as triangles and other recurring patterns.
I always analyse the long term first to get the big picture (usually the weekly charts(, and then go to the daily charts for trading or pin-point buy or sell level determination.
On Jordex's weekly charts, the MACD gave the 1st buy signal last week since Aug 1998. The last sell signal was in May 1999 after the $1.12 52-week high.
OBV showed negative divergence to the price in mid-April 1999, indicating weakness and a likely price decline. In mid & late Sept 1999 the OBV showed positive divergence even as the price fell below the $0.70 support area, indicating that the price lows would be temporary. OBV is now trending upward along with the MACD and RSI - all supportive of the new price trend.
The 1st week in Oct 99 saw a breakout from the descending triangle formation. This was very significant in that the downtrend that had been in place for 6 months, from the $1.12 high, finally came to an abrupt end, with an affirming rise in volume, as the share price moved from a low of $0.65 to a high of $0.82 over the week.
What is also interesting is that the low's reached correspond to solid support at the $0.63 area where both the 80-week MA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement sit. Both are generally considered key support levels from a long term perspective.
The 13-week MA is currently at $0.74, and the 40-week MA sits at $0.78. Both are now rising although the faster 13-week MA was in a decline since mid-June 99, until it flattened out this last month. The 40-week MA has been in a steady rise since Feb 99.
The 13-week MA in particular has had a strong supportive and resistive correlation to the price trends - acting as the rally high points (resistance) during bear phases, and as the lows on pull-backs during the bull phases (support), going back through several cycles to 1993. This relationship is therefore likely to continue. The fact that price is now comfortable above all three MA's is very significant and bullish.
The 50% Fibonacci Retracement sits at $0.82, 38.2% is at $0.97, and 23.6% is at $1.12. The historical support and resistance of these levels, along with the $1.62, $2.44 and $3.78 areas is uncanny. They will likely remain key areas.
There are so many other significant bits and pieces one can look to and come up with various short and medium term strategies. What I prefer at this point is to give the big picture snap shot from the monthly chart:
The key 13-month MA is strongly supportive at the $0.71 area and has acted as the bottom of the recent lows. It is rising at about a 30 degree angle. It alone has been almost the perfect buy and sell signal back to when my charts start in 1993, acting as support & resistence during the various bull and bear markets. It gave the 1st buy signal in Jan 1999 at $0.55 since the sell signal of Nov 1996 at $2.12. The previous buy signal was Oct 1995 at $0.75.
We have broken out from the consolidation pattern and are now on a new leg of what will likely be a similar % move as the one from the year low of $0.31 to the recent high of $1.12.
The next area of congestion that I consider key is in the $0.95-1.12 area. After that it's clear sailing to around $1.62 according to Fibonacci.
There are various other influences but I've gotten way too detailed already.
Time for bed ... good night and good luck to all.
Rob.
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