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To: Lucretius who started this subject	11/5/2001 9:32:54 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	of 436258

ENERGY MARKETS The energy markets closed lower on Monday due to continued worries over demand following recent economic data, which indicates that the U.S. economy continues to slow following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. At the same time losses were limited due to comments from a number of members of OPEC, which raised expectations that it could cut crude oil production by up to 1 million barrels of oil per day when it meets November 14th. December crude oil extended last week’s breakout below September’s low on Monday but held above last Friday’s low of 19.69. This could lead to a corrective bounce on Tuesday as traders await this week’s API inventory data reports for near-term direction. Daily momentum indicators are oversold however, trend-following indicators such as the ADX have entered bearish modes signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during November. December heating oil closed lower on Monday as it extended last week’s breakout below this fall’s trading range. December’s inability to rally in its seasonally strong time frame underscores the weak tone of the market. If the decline continues, weekly support crossing at 56.88, then 54.40 are December’s next likely targets. Weekly momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during November. December unleaded gas closed lower on Monday but held above last Friday’s low. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level of the 1998/2001 rally on the weekly chart crossing at 51.87 is December’s next likely target. Stochastics and RSI are bearish but becoming oversold while the daily ADX has entered a bearish trend mode signaling that additional weakness is possible during November. December Henry Hub natural gapped down in overnight trading and extended losses into the close on Monday. Today’s gap down may prove to be a downside breakaway gap following last week’s apparent double top with September’s high. Momentum indicators have turned bearish with today’s sell off indicating that sideways to lower prices are possible during November. CURRENCIES The December Dollar gapped up and closed higher on Monday. Session highs fell short of testing the late-October gap crossing at 115.49 before profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today’s gains. The mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. Closes above October’s gap resistance could lead to a retest of this fall’s high at 116.60. At the same time, stochastics and RSI remain bearish hinting that today’s rally may be nothing more that a corrective bounce. Closes below last week’s low and this fall’s uptrend line crossing near 113.75 are needed to renew the decline off October’s high. The December Swiss Franc was lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week’s gains. December’s mid-range close left the door open sideways trading on Tuesday. Short- term momentum indicators are giving mixed signals but could easily turn bearish with additional weakness. Closes below October’s low at .5996 are needed to renew the decline off this fall’s high. Weekly momentum indicators are bearish indicating that sideways to lower prices are possible during November. The December Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidates some of last week’s losses. While short-term momentum indicators are becoming oversold, trend-following indicators such as the daily ADX are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the first half of November. Monday’s low- range close leaves the door open for additional weakness on Tuesday. The December Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Monday as it consolidates some of last week’s gains. Closes above broken support crossing at .8263 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Until then, I have to view any rebound as corrective in nature, which leaves the door open for sideways to lower prices during November. If this fall’s decline resumes, the reaction low crossing at .8090 is a potential target later this year.

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