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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: FaultLine who started this subject5/14/2004 2:56:20 PM
From: E   of 281500
 
Yesterday, Paul Bremer announced that if the post-June 30 interim government asks the US to leave, we will.

Below is an exchange I had on another thread with someone who had made the comment in italics below:

it will get much worse if we don't continue to support the efforts for a New Autonomously ruled Iraq that recognizes the rights of individuals and minority groups. If we leave now ... hello extremist rule and bolstering of confidence among the radical revolutionaries across the region.

You're right. I certainly can't think of an exit strategy that is going to prevent the Shiite majority from taking control and establishing a form of theocratic government closely linked with Iran, and with all that implies for such things as individual rights, minority rights, rights for women.

And the power of this government will presumably be established by civil conflict with Sunnis and Kurds.

NB: Yesterday, Paul Bremer announced that if the post-June 30 interim government asks the US to leave, we will. He qualified this by saying he didn't think this would happen, but if it does, we'll depart, he said.

This sounds to me like Bush's way out of the costly and worsening mess he created by invading without competent post-occupation planning.

I guess there'd be a relocation of US forces to the friendly Kurdish areas, but the withdrawal would surely be seen as a defeat of the US, a victory for radical and nationalist Islam, and, yes, would do just what you say -- "hello extremist rule and bolstering confidence among the radical revolutionaries across the region."

Maybe this is appearing to the Bush administration as better than losing the election.
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