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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 378.35+2.7%Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: louel who wrote (133088)4/13/2017 6:52:35 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (1) of 217657
 
Your misunderstanding of the capabilities of anti-missile systems like Patriot and Iron Dome is very widespread, even though it's very well documented that the intercept rate in Israel against long range missiles is roughly 5% and this is very well documented.

These systems have the higher intercept rate you are talking about ONLY when dealing with rockets, not missiles, and only when they're fired from less than 2.5 miles away. - extremetech.com - en.wikipedia.org - nationalinterest.org - thebulletin.org

To achieve this minimal effectiveness Israel launches two $50,000 interceptor missiles to intercept one $700 rocket Hamas launches. These rockets have no in-flight evasion systems or randomizing capability in their flight controls. Propaganda journals like the "Jersusalem Post" make this trivial achievement using $100k to kill $7k sound really significant.

North Korea is a country, not a group of neighborhood thugs like Hamas launching one rocket every few minutes while taking videos and cheering for the camera. North Korea probably has a minimum of hundreds of thousands of little rockets which are far more capable than this sort. They could saturate Seoul and there's no effective defense.

While this is a problem for Seoul, the problem is North Korea has longer range missiles, things that strike a target hundreds or thousands of miles away.

In staged tests where the people operating the missile interceptor system know in advance of where a missile will be fired, without any alteration in flight path to provide evasion capacity, they can achieve a hit rate of 65% to 85%. But this is an entirely artificial situation test unlike anything you'd face from North Korea.

Because of these popular misconceptions in capability, real military plans are very different to what big talking guys on the street imagine is possible. Many like yourself live in a comic book world of superheros but that world isn't real.
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