Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (13296)	3/2/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) of 95453

That's easy! Take a look at the time frames. This is an excellent example of how easy it is to fool yourself with numbers. Both of you look at some of the same data and see different things. The other thing to note is that the y-axis is logarithmic. Here's a suggestion as to how to view the data. Instead of simply indexing (by setting both equal to 1.00 or 100% at some arbitrary time) calculate the the per cent increase or decrease in each over the identical periods (i.e. periodic rates of return). Then regress one against the other. To see whether on index leads the other try lagging the periodic returns by one or more periods. Using this approach you can calculate coefficients of correlation etc. If any of you (Ron or Thean) is interested in this approach and would like some help, please let me know. Statistical analysis of data to support your conclusions sure beats conjecture! Regards, Paul

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