Briefing's take on Flu Season (minus the company charts...)
Updated: 05-Oct-04
Small Cap Profile: Flu Season Plays
[BRIEFING.COM -- Robert J. Reid] The flu season is upon us, let's see if we can cough up some profits. A key catalyst could be the weekly flu activity data, which will begin to be released by the Centers for Disease Control on Oct 15. This should initiate a media blitz that will last into next year especially considering there was a shortage last year, especially with Chiron announcing a delay this morning. We highlight some flu stocks that could move on the news: CNXS, QDEL, QGLY. All three made strong moves last flu season -- averaging 34% in just 3-4 months.
What Is It?
* Influenza (or flu) is a viral infection of the nose, throat, bronchial tubes, and lungs that can make someone at any age ill.
* Usually the flu occurs in the US from about November to April.
* Symptoms include fever, chills, cough, and soreness and aching in your back, arms, and legs.
* Although most people are ill for only a few days, some people have a much more serious illness and may need to seek medical attention.
* The flu is a highly contagious respiratory virus that travels via contact with contaminated surfaces or particles breathed, sneezed or coughed into the air.
* The flu kills an estimated 36,000 Americans a year and puts 200,000 into the hospital.
Catalysts
* Weekly flu activity data will begin to be released by the CDC on October 15, which will likely kick off a media blitz that will last into next year. Click here for updates.
* Last year, there was a shortage of vaccines, so this should intensify demand this year.
* This morning, Chiron (CHIR) said that it was delaying shipment for several weeks of about 48 million doses of its flu vaccine to the US market after it was discovered that several batches made at its Liverpool plant had been contaminated. This should also help to intensify media attention.
* The CDC is planning for this flu season to be as strong as last year's, which despite beginning earlier and peaking in December, was relatively severe.
Upcoming Flu Related Events*
* National Adult Immunization Awareness Week (NAIAW) Sept 26-Oct 2
* National Vaccine Advisory Committee (NVAC) Oct 5-6
* Immunization Week in the Americas Oct 11-17
* Current Issues in Immunization NetConference Oct 14, 12pm ET
* 5th Immunization Registry Conference Oct 18-20
* Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Oct 27-28
*Source: Pac Growth Equities
CNS Inc. (CNXS 11.16 +0.02)
* Stock moved 19% from $12.20 on Oct 15 to a high of $14.55 on Jan 16, 2004.
* This year the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ordered 100 million doses of vaccine
* Adam Harkness, which recently reiterated a $15 target, notes that CNS products benefit indirectly from an increase in the number of flu cases each year, as its Breathe Right nasal strips and Vapor Shot provide relief from various cold/flu-related discomfort.
* Also, the firm expects new Breathe Right and Fiber Choice product announcements in December, which could represent another positive catalyst.
Quidel Corp. (QDEL 4.67)
* Stock moved 56% from $8.94 on Oct 15 to a high of $13.98 on Feb 12, 2004.
* Co sells the QuickVue Influenza A+B test.
* Stock made the strongest move last flu season.
Quigley Corp. (QGLY 8.91 +0.34)
* Stock moved 26% from $8.90 on Oct 15 to a high of $11.20 on Dec 29, 2003.
* Co makes the highly regarded Cold-Eeze family of patented zinc gluconate glycine lozenges and sugar free tablets.
* Cold-Eeze is the only (ZIGG) lozenge proven in two double-blind studies to reduce the duration of the common cold from 7.6 to 4.4 days or by 42%.
Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com |
