Hi Jack,
Thanks for your thoughts.
For individual stocks, one could look at both fundamental and technical indicators to gauge overbought / oversold conditions. The general rule of not exiting an AIM account as long as the fundamentals are strong, seems like a good approach to me, particularly with individual stocks. The IW is very helpful in that regard, and your idea of a dynamic buy-sell bandwidth sounds very interesting.
With mutual funds, it's more of a puzzle to try and analyze the fundamentals. We can make judgement calls about the prospects of various sectors, such as Health Sci., or Energy, etc., and invest accordingly.
Generally speaking, looking at the 26 week MA in Newport, there are only three ways that mutual funds go: flat, incline, or decline. Also, the cycles tend to be long, and with a little effort, even 'eyeballing' it, one could pull the trigger and avoid AIMing the big down cycles. I feel that AIMing the big down cycles of mutual funds is very inefficient, particularly in a tax-deferred situation.
It's good to hear from you, and I look forward to learning more about your work.
Regards,
Jack |
