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To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (133777)10/28/2001 1:16:38 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
Hi Cat: "Do you think China can continue to grow despite the global economic slump? How dependent are they on export markets?"

These are important questions for the global economy. China cannot help but be hit my slumping international demand. But what is remarkable in China is the sheer scale of the mobilization of resources. There are any number of ways in which this mobilization can lead to disaster -- it is true. But it is impressive to see that China has moved decisively in the direction of far more open trade with increased reliance on market mechanisms.

As to sustaining his mobilization -- there needs to be some way to tap the high savings rate in China to build the urban infrastructure needed in the wake of China's entry into the WTO. They have the potential for multi-trillion dollar municipal bond market -- I do not yet have a feeling for the extent to which this is recognized in China.

China is the strongest economy in the world in terms of size and growth right now. It is one of the best hopes for pulling the world out of this economic slump. But the emergence of China will also be a challenge to the pecking order in Asia -- Japan in particular seems increasingly uncomfortable. The smaller countries in Asia have alot to think about. Foreign investment is being sucked into China and less is going into other countries.
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