John, thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts on the current rate situation. You did an outstanding job in stating the situation base on facts, at least as I understand them.
Re:<< Growth is going to slow in the fall down to 3%..that will be acceptable for the Fed....they will not to continue to raise given current data...>> how many times have we heard the economy will slow down to the 2.5 to 3% growth rate? Yet, the economy remains very vibrant, running at a 4+% rate. Although the economies that you mentioned in your posting are still weak, the forecasts that I've seen indicate that they are growing. Can they maintain this progress? I really don't know. By the way, do you really think a 25 basis point increase will slow anything? I sure don't.
If the Fed doesn't announce a neutral stance at the next meeting, the bond market will take it as a signal that future rates are on the horizon. As Edamo would say, its the perception that counts, not the facts. In many respects, I think the future direction of the stock market will depend on what stance the fed announces at the meeting. (No announcement meaning that they maintain the rate increase stance.)
I could go on with the valuation of the market, etc. Heard today, on CNN that AJC made some statement today on the "fully valuated" market. I didn't hear, or read, her exact comments, so I just telling you what I heard on CNN Financial News this evening.
I for one would love to put the inflation and bond rate issue to bed and get on with the market related issues...earnings, IPO's, etc.
Stock Bull |
