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At some point, these companies will be cheap enough to precipitate an M&A feeding frenzy. They do have assets after all, and it may be cheaper to buy rigs from a depressed company than to build them anew. This would favor cash rich corps ready to pounce, and just waiting for the signs of a bottom. I believe that sign will be buyouts, and that it will be here sooner than later. From the messages on this thread, it may well be under way. The painful part of all this is that the broad market continues to do well while this sector virtually crashes. Perhaps the cheap price of oil and ready availability of oil stores is keeping the broader market going. It thus appears that those of us long are simply in the wrong sector at the wrong time, but patience has a way of rewarding those who can wait. In this case the threads are dominated by people who think in terms of days, weeks and months, but not years, so pessimism is currently rampant. On the other hand, oil is a limited commodity, demand is not, and alternatives are few for the next twenty years, anyway. Just my feelings at this point in the cycle. Relax and wait for the rest of the world to catch up with American Demands and Lifestyles. It is happening faster than any of us thought possible just a few years ago. |
