outstanding, Man of Voltage Power
excellent logical flow.. apologize only if no length, this is complex.. I took notes this weekend on further indepth reading.. of import is banks and internets (led by AOL) were not participants in the decline test.. also the VIX volatility index is registering rather high now, contraindicative of a rally imminence
tidbit: Q2 net outflow from mutual funds totaled $100B.. saving rate is a problem.. the saving horde (stocks held) only treaded with major indexes, but slightly loss in avg stock
Japan is a huge piece to the Fed half of your listed pair of Mighty Factors.. I hope you address this other half sometime, no rush.. but now seems relevant with the dollar pressures
I always follow the Fed, money flow, Japan/Euro/US triangle.. the IMF prelim meetings are done methink, and Summers is clear "we wont weaken yen, Japan recovery has no sustaining power, reforms not there".. big battle between MinFinance and BankJapan now.. no printing yen since that would monetize Jap private debt toutedesuite.. yen printing is what many have urged BoJ to do to weaken yen.. different situation from typical US and Euro because of colossal private debt from real estate bubble.. Japan at IMF will request for internatl effort to weaken the yen and strengthen domestic currencies.. gonna be interesting, since such measures will dampen export opps
excellent clarity of motive and execution.. this porch is gonna be educative for me.. only hope my experience with Fed half will be elucidating to others.. I love indicators and contraindicators.. agree AOL is a solid predictor, much more so than AMZN (somewhat fallen) and EBAY (somewhat stumbled).. due to my observation of internets, the decline looked phoney.. just wonder about how much collusion goes on among bighouses
smart friends continually ask me about the annual Oct decline.. I say we have been treading under threats and fears since Labor with no annual postLabor rally.. no postLab rally, no Oct decline.. decline from what overbought situation? .. they are catching on, but might miss this imminent rally
glad to hear your postulated view on y2k.. will get to that later after some hot indian summer days on the porch sipping iced tea
thanks, great porch
from the tree above,
/ Jim Willie |
