Value Line Investment Survey Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Line Investment Survey

VALU 37.51

+1.9%

11:47 AM EST

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To: KevRupert who wrote (134)	12/13/2001 12:22:21 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 219

Hi A, Funny you should mention energy as a topic. Just in the last few weeks my energy holdings have been approaching their individual buy prices. Dominion Resources (D) had dropped to near its buy price of under $58/share. That's where I'd start buying with a minimum size order. Currently I won't sell any of my position unless the price were to rise to over $71. Exxon/Mobil (XOM) has also dropped closer to the buy side of my trade range. I'll start accumulating at about $36. I'll start selling off some inventory if the price were to rise again to above $48. With the current price at about $37+, we're much closer to buying more shares than selling any! My Chevron/Texaco (CVX) is down from its highs and now below its 26 week moving average. I won't start to accumulate any shares until the price falls to about $71 and with it currently at about $86, that won't be happening too soon. I won't part with any inventory until the price exceeds $96. Since the recent merger of the two companies, the stock price has generally been falling. I may have to adjust the "hold zone" on this one after it's found its own trade range. I use Vanguard's Special Energy fund (VGENX) as a catch-all for other parts of the energy world. There my "hold zone" is from about $24 to about $31. The current price is about $26, so I'm neither buying or selling right now. I last sold 5% of the holding back in May at $31.55. So it too is well off its recent highs. I've been accumulating a position in Energy Stocks for a very long time. I feel that the long term value will be realized with very nice gains over a ten year period. So, when energy is out of favor I look to see if there's spare funds anywhere and add to this portion of the portfolio. Individually, I add to each equity's holding when the price of that holding discounts enough from previous selling points. In my case I don't "buy all and sell all" shares, but do incremental buying and selling around a base inventory in the stock of fund. With a world recession going on right now, energy prices should continue to decline and probably energy stocks with them. Your timing looks to be pretty good on getting started in this area. We're seeing the best buying prices since probably late 1998. However, they may not be through dropping yet. My cash reserves are good enough for the Energy stocks to keep buying for some time. Best regards, Tom

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