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Gold/Mining/Energy : Imperial Metals (IPM.T)
IPM 1.970-0.5%Oct 31 9:30 AM EDT

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (1359)2/15/2014 2:45:31 PM
From: Italian Investor  Read Replies (2) of 1366
 
This board has been pretty active since I last posted and the market is almost even for the year yuck! Paul you hold a lot of names I don’t know how you do it I don’t have the energy! I am holding 5 name right now lol and the bulk being in the big 3. I am up a little over 5% for the year now so I guess it is not all bad catching up a little from last years disaster. I see they changed scheduled D again making it easier for people without a lot of adjustments, I still had to go the 8949 route not as many forms as I thought but near 50 this year. I made 2 new macros in excel that make my life a little easier as it generates the 8949 forms on its own without me cutting and pasting 50 times.



Anyways are NG producers going to break out soon? Seems like the future is getting brighter and brighter! Looking @ the supply data and exports going forward looks pretty rosy for natural gas producers IMO. Next year we should see 2%-2.5% of daily US production going abroad that might not seem like much but when you are 30% below the 5 year average and there is still another 6-8 weeks of cold weather coming we could be under 1tcf in 4 or 5 weeks which is really low! Also, remember we are still an importer of NG roughly 11% comes from abroad (down from roughly 15% 5 years ago but we still import!). Then factor consumption in the USA has been growing a little over 2% per year 2007-2012 and you can only expect this to have a higher growth rate going forward it is just another factor why ng is going higher. A lot has to be replenished and if we have a hotter than normal summer look out. Every additional mcf going abroad is more we have to import or produce here @home. Exports I am guessing should grow @ a double digit pace each passing year so we can see huge spikes in prices as this will be a drag on an already tight market every passing year. IMO US supplies are hugely overstated we don’t have anything close too 100 years of supply @ today’s prices and consumption. NG prices have to be much higher to be economical for a lot of players 4MCF and maybe not even 5MCF will encourage a lot of production, so I would not be surprised if a lot wait out for the 6-8 range. Anyways enough on natural gas the miners been roaring this year and I made a mistake selling too soon errrr, but happy with the money I made in that space this year. I am back to just NG producers and Fairfax hope it is not a repeat of last year!





Imperial is a rock for you Refugee wish I still had it would have been nice. I have not been paying much attention to Bruce’s holdings we are in different sectors right now he loves the financials and I love energy names so not really paying attention sorry.
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