"After they fail at the ballot box and in the courts, Sunnis
will embrace wild conspiracy theories, like our homegrown
Democrats have done. Nineveh will become their Ohio, complete
with allegations of fraud and Zionist conspiracies."
Nineveh: The New Ohio
-- PoliPundit
Yesterday, I noted that the Iraqi Constitutional referendum is the best kind of election for political junkies: The outcome is unknown, and the stakes are massive.
I also predicted that it would be extremely hard for the Sunnis to gin up a two-thirds majority in three provinces to stop the Constitution. Well, here’s some more information about that:
<<<
Even before negotiations broke down among drafters of the constitution, representatives for Sunni parties and a coalition of Sadr followers were meeting privately to map out a strategy for rallying a “no” vote in three provinces. Sunnis and Sadr loyalists, who forged ties last year when each battled U.S. troops, share concerns about federalism in the draft constitution.
…
Nearly everyone agrees that Sunnis could deliver a two-thirds “no” vote in the western province of Al Anbar, home to the insurgent hot spots of Fallouja and Ramadi. Sunnis also constitute a majority in the province of Salahuddin, where Hussein was born.
Drawing a two-thirds “no” vote in a third province, though, will be harder, experts said. Sunnis have large numbers in the Nineveh province in the north, where Mosul is located, and in Diyala, adjacent to Baghdad. But Shiites and Kurds also have large populations in those regions.
Sadr representatives insist that they can deliver a southern province, possibly Maysan, home to Amarah, or Basra, where Sadr followers performed well in the January vote....
...But Shiite and Kurdish leaders expressed strong doubts that constitution opponents could muster the two-thirds support in three provinces.
“Other than in Anbar, I doubt the Sunnis would be able to win in any other province,” said Saad Jawad, political chief of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, one of the leading Shiite parties. “They don’t have the two-thirds. And I doubt the Sadr people could get any province.”
>>>
I agree. Sunnis simply don’t have the numbers to head off the Constitution.
So they’re starting to behave like Democrats here in the US. They can’t win at the ballot box; so they’ll rely on the courts:
<<<
“We don’t want to wage a war against anybody, but we say this draft has written in away that will divide and tear apart Iraq,” Saleh al-Mutlaq, a top Sunni negotiator said Monday. “This constitution was written in a hurry and also passed in a hurry.”
Al-Mutlaq said the Sunnis will try to bring down the constitution either through legal means or via the referendum.
“If the constitution is not changed, then we will try to bring it down either before the referendum through the law by filing a suit in international or local courts, if we can, challenging the legitimacy of this constitution and the National Assembly,” al-Mutlaq told Al-Jazeera television.
>>>
After they fail at the ballot box and in the courts, Sunnis will embrace wild conspiracy theories, like our homegrown Democrats have done. Nineveh will become their Ohio, complete with allegations of fraud and Zionist conspiracies.
History does indeed repeat itself. Sigh.
polipundit.com
polipundit.com
newsday.com
news.yahoo.com |
