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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Bernard Levy who wrote (13697)9/13/1998 2:12:00 AM
From: craig crawford   of 18691
 
>> However, right now they are a really impressive company and lots of semi investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in if the price comes down significantly <<

Precisely. There is still a romance story to BRCM. Business is expanding rapidly right now, just as it was with CIEN last year and part of this year. It was just plain wrong to short CIEN last year, no matter what it is trading at today.

>> Most BRCM boosters, including its CEO, tout it as the next Intel. Wrong! There is not obstacle to entry in BRCM markets, and over time they will be challenged on many fronts. <<

I disagree with you a bit on this point. While it is by no means a given that BRCM will ever become the next INTC, your argument doesn't preclude it from happening. Low barriers to entry and fierce competition hasn't stopped Michael Dell. If it's been done once it can be done again.

It all rests on how savvy BRCM management is. Some managers have what it takes and some don't.

The jury is still out.
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