PV,
I am really expecting the Semi sector chart to hit the 70%, statistically, during May or at least prior to August, expecially since the funds have again jumped on board. What do you perceives are the pro's and con's of such a movement?
What price movement estimate would you place on AMAT during such a movement. If I were a were a betting man I would bet that we will have a run up and another split prior to or prior to August 1999. Threaders, what are the odds of such a movement.
Hard to say what the funds will do longer term, it depends on
the perceived health of the industry into July/August and looking
forward into 1999 (after the 1/2 year point). This is like trying
to draw an ace from the deck, lots of cards to choose from and
no sure way of telling what may turn up to change the game. Still
to many cards in the deck.
I wouldn't bet on a split before 2000 based on current market
conditions and uncertain customer buying/spending potential until
things stabilize and the need for new fabs/equipment starts the
next "wave" of high dollar purchases. There is no real compelling
product "necessity" on the market to drive new fab expansion for
new consumer products, IMHO.
As far as the BTB "semi-cycle" every 8 to 9 months,does that
correlate to a calendar cycle year-to-year? If so, it could suggest
annual budgetary outlays based on projected chip sales growth and
fab/technology expansion by corporations forcasting their growth
requirements, hard to say if the correlation is valid. Would need
to see a chart comparing fab expansion, device geometry change,
new products/sales comparison graph to understand the possible
implications, would be a good exercise though if you could find
the correlating factors.
Regards,
BB |
