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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP
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To: Mark Fleming who wrote (1360)4/29/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth   of 5853
 
Maybe a distinction on bandwidth should be made between raw throughput capability of the fiber and holdups along the way. Where will the bottlenecks be? It sure seems that the backbone is getting big enough and fat enough that it won't be the cause of congestion in the medium term (2003?).

But, getting onto the highway may be a problem. The video on demand that some talk about, real-time 3D animated imaging, natural-voice voice recognition over the web, all require bandwidth that is not close to being fulfilled today. What kind of speeds will these applications require in the "first mile" and the "last mile". I have seen estimates ranging from 10Mbps to 45 for the last mile, and tend to favor the high end of that range as a medium term goal. If you multiply this estimate by multiple lines coming into the CO--which isn't even on the edge of the network!--you very quickly get to gigabyte speeds needed before you even are aggregated at the edge.

Another way to look at it is by looking at all the "nodes" a packet must pass through. Those each represent a delay in message transmission (which must be dealt with). Most also represent aggregation points, where some multiple of a previous node's bandwidth is needed.

And that brings us back to the first mile. And Intel's server farms--mentioned in several of the replies. All of these people demanding such things as video on demand will greatly increase the raw server processing power requirements. (How many servers will it require to provide downloads of the next Star Wars movie, when LucasArts decides to make it available for realtime, one-view only download for $2.25 on the Web? With everyone who wants it ordering it at a slightly different time? Yikes!)
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