<<After the earnings in mid-April, May 30s looked like a sure bet,
especially with new products and WWDC coming, but this didn't happen
(of course you could have made some money in the meantime).>>
Usually WWDC is not the event as big as quarterly reports, hence I
wouldn't bet May 30s after earning, instead, I would place at 27.5.
Another to remember is that you always have to sell in the rally and
not wait until near the expiration.
<<For now, I think one needs to go out to at least October in 30s
in order to bet on July's MacWorld. It's just too much of a gamble to
expect a perfect run-up (or spike) just a few days before July's
expiration.>>
The reason to place July 30 is due to:
- the price is not difficult to reach 30's before MacWorld;
- the closer the expiration date you bet, the higher percentage of
gain you will have;
- Q3 seems to be better than expectations, and iMac will be available
in August, the stock should be well above 30's should the overall
tech market is on the uptrend.
- Summer rally will arrive during July-August. I think we should have
no exception this year;
- Remember to sell in the rally before or after Q3 reports.
Phil |
